ATP World Tour Finals Reaction - Mr Invincible Triumphs Again

Year end no.1 two years in a row, Novak Djokovic won his second Year End Championships with victory over Roger Federer in a breathtaking duel. It was at times unbalanced with momentum switching dramatically at the beginning and end of both sets, but the quality at times was staggering and the shotmaking simply ridiculous. Federer was fast out of the blocks in the first set, pulling away to a 3-0 lead, but Djokovic didn't waver and dug in his heels to eventually break back, finding his defensive game and deflecting back all Federer could throw at him. The tiebreaker was a turning point, featuring an incredible point Federer won in which he hit a crosscourt forehand winner that was almost behind him, to save the first set point, but Djokovic eventually took it on his next opportunity. The momentum firmly behind him, Djokovic broke Federer straight away and was leading 40-0 on his own serve to consolidate the break, but made a succession of weak unforced errors that handed the break right back and re-energised Federer, who started to reproduce the tennis he was playing for much of the first set. He broke Djokovic not long after and was holding serve comfortably until he came to serve for the set leading 5-4 - at which point Djokovic made his signature surge to break with some incredible clutch play. Minutes later he was 6-5 up with a match point on Federer's serve. The way he clinched the title was magnificent - stretched wide on to his backhand side by a net rushing Federer he stayed low and ripped a searing backhand down the line, and his roar was just as exciting. It was an extraordinary and apposite end to a year which has seen an obscene level of quality, - there can be no doubt that the is the golden era - and by the time the Australian Open comes around the expectation will be just as high.

ATP World Tour Finals Semi Finals Preview

The semi finals of the year ending championships are set, and they're two clashes of potentially epic magnitude: Djokovic vs Del Potro and Federer vs Murray. For me there are no clear predictions - each has the ability to defeat the other - but here's a summary of what to expect.

Djokovic vs del Potro

Juan Martin del Potro played brilliantly to beat Federer yesterday, serving powerfully and precisely, and consistently putting Federer under duress with his crushing forehand. If he can replicate this form against Djokovic, he'll give himself a chance to break through the world no.1's diamond strength defence and dictate from the baseline. As ever, against the best returner in the game he'll need to serve with high percentages similar to those he produced against Federer in the final set of that match, as well as follow strong serves up with some first strike, pressing play. Their last encounter on a hard court at the US Open demonstrated just how hard Djokovic is to break down at the back of the court in long rallies, and del Potro has to force the play early on to avoid repeating the loss in which he fought valiantly but was still downed in straights. So in short, Djokovic is still the favourite, but del Potro possesses the ability and firepower to repeat his performance in the 2009 World Tour Finals. Additionally, there has been evidence to suggest there is an element of jadedness in Djokovic, who has started a couple of his matches quite slowly, especially in his 3 set win against Murray. If he starts slow del Potro has to take advantage and put the Serb on the back foot. But as we've seen for two years now, Djokovic's ability to fight back from the semblance of a defeat is so good it's unnatural. And that's likely how the match will play out - del Potro to start strong, Djokovic to come roaring back, but shoot me down for being a contrarian, this time I think the Tower will win in 3 bruising sets.

Federer vs Murray

After beating Federer at the Olympics and following it with his first Grand Slam, Murray has shed the element of doubt that he can beat his contemporaries on the biggest occasions. Despite losing the Wimbledon final to Federer he has now won 5 straight sets against him, utilising his unique game which Federer has recently struggled to deal with. Aside from a poor start against Berdych and lapses in concentration against Djokovic, Murray has looked good this week, serving strongly and displaying a positive intent to be aggressive. Federer's form has been solid, but he has at times looked fragile; the first set against David Ferrer he was fortunate not to have lost, serving at a very low first serve percentage and spared by Ferrer missing multiple break points, and against del Potro he played an atrocious tiebreaker, missing several backhands. He can't afford to be slack on the big points against Murray, who will be galvanised by his home crowd and unlike Ferrer will be all over Federer's second serve if he fails to make a sizeable number of first serves. I expect Murray to extend his winning streak over Federer in 3 sets. 

ATP World Tour Finals 2012 Preview

The groups have been set for another electrifying clash between the top 8 players in the world. Rafael Nadal's absence is still conspicuous, but regardless, this is going to be a huge face off for the current top 3 which will set the tone for the first Grand Slam of 2013. Novak Djokovic has secured the year end no.1 ranking for the second year in succession; Federer is defending the title he has now won twice in succession, and Murray is looking to end his career year with a flourish. They are certainly the front runners - but at this time of year, don't be surprised if neither man wins the tournament. Ferrer, Tsonga, Del Potro and Berdych are all players with the ability to take down the big 3, and if they hit top form expect some fierce battles from the group stage to the final.

Group breakdown:

Group A: Djokovic, Murray, Berdych, Tsonga

If there's a group of death, this has to be it. Djokovic and Murray are the obvious choices to make the semi finals, but Berdych and Tsonga are perhaps the two players you don't want to have to play back to back in the group stage. Both possess heavy artillery off the ground, huge serves and are excellent on indoor hardcourt. If Tsonga in particular turns up to London in good form, he loves playing on grand stages and could knock off one of the favourites. Berdych has been excellent form in this half of the year and is more than capable of causing an upset too, if his power play style is clicking. Combine that with the unexpected exits of Murray and Djokovic from the Paris Masters last week, it suggests either one may be feeling the fatigue of a long season in which they have battled many times. Comparably however, both are in much better form than this time last year, and I'd still expect both to make the semi finals.

Group B: Federer, Ferrer, Del Potro, Tipsarevic

Federer shouldn't have much trouble making it to the final four with this competition, with only a potential loss coming against Del Potro, who defeated him in his hometown tournament of Basel two weeks ago. More interesting is the fight for the final spot in the semi finals - Del Potro is the favourite, but I'm not counting out Ferrer, who is coming off his first Masters title in Paris, and must be confident he can equal his performance last year. He holds a strong record over Del Potro and the ability to neutralise the giant Argentinian's power, and it could be an early pivotal group match in the round robin stage. Overall Del Potro's form this year has been impressive, and it would be great to see him challenging for the title again, as he did in his flagship year of 2009. Tipsarevic plays the role of spoiler, but I don't see him taking down Federer indoors, Del Potro, or Ferrer, with whom he shared an epic 5 set match at the US Open this year.

Semi-finalists: Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Del Potro

He Got There In The End: Andy Murray, US Open 2012 Champion

It took 5 times of asking, and years of disappointment but Andy Murray has joined the illustrious company of Grand Slam winners. Even without the significance of being the first British man to win a Grand Slam in a three quarters of a century, it was a fantastic moment seeing him finally claim a major after so much physical and emotional investment. Perhaps the most low key celebration after winning a Grand Slam I've ever seen, it indicated the sheer relief of owning one after being ordained year upon year to win one, and facing the suggestion that it might never happen.

But the way in which he won could not have been more emphatic. Defeating Novak Djokovic, winner of the past 3 hard court Grand Slams he reversed the criticism directed at his supposedly weak mentality and lack of mettle at pressure moments, holding his nerve and timing his final set push with a brilliant demonstration of individual willpower. It was without doubt a magnificent match, one of the all time classic Grand Slam finals and contained some of the most unimaginable tennis played all years, superseding even their 5 hour encounter at the Australian Open earlier this year. The first set alone lasted 1 hour and a half and featured an exhibition length, 54 shot rally - although the quality was severely affected by the windy conditions, Murray and Djokovic still managed to push each other to the limit as far as possible. Murray's adaptation to the conditions benefited him in the first set as Djokovic struggled with his footwork, and when the tiebreaker came around he seemed the more stable of the two players. Like the majority of the first set the breaker was a cagey affair with neither man taking the initiative, but Murray took it with some controlled aggression and served strongly at the right moments.

The mammoth set completed, Djokovic was winded and Murray took control in the second, pulling out to a sizable lead. Closing it out eventually 7-5, there was still the indiciation from Djokovic that he was about to mount a comeback - he really is the man who cannot stay dead in Grand Slams these days, and by the fourth set it seemed as if he was about to pull off another impossible comeback as Murray appeared to be running out of energy. The rallies continued to be lengthy and ferocious with some of the most dazzling displays of defence and counterpunching ever seen - it was fascinating to watch the two best backhands in the world trading pound for pound from the baseline, looking for openings and angles. Owing to their combined consistency off the ground off that wing each man seemed a wall to the other - particularly for Djokovic, until he found his aggressive edge from the third set onwards could not break through Murray's defence. The quality of the tennis that night was unbelievable, and along with the Australian Open is just another demonstration of what it takes to win a Grand Slam. There is a chasm between the top 4 Grand Slam winners and everyone beneath, and that is only set to continue for the next 2-3 years with Murray and Djokovic in their prime, Federer still playing and Nadal possibly returning for the Australian Open in 2013.

For Murray the chasm has now been closed and as far as a tennis player can feel complete, he can be assured that he is remembered within the highest echelons of the sport as someone who was able to mark his name in an era of multiple slam winners. A big piece of the puzzle must be accredited to the best decision in Murray's career in hiring Ivan Lendl, whose failure and then triumph in his 5th Grand Slam final mirrors Murray's exactly. There seems to be something that Lendl sees of himself in Murray, and Murray is deeply indebted to Lendl for guiding him to both an Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open title. The journey has been an arduous one, but now Murray will have that core of belief to go on and win more, to feel that he genuinely belongs amongst the circle of Grand Slam champions and press forward to challenge for the no.1 ranking.

US Open 2012 Final Preview: Andy Murray vs Novak Djokovic

So the final has been set. After weathering a great start by David Ferrer and some gruelling, lengthy rallies, Djokovic secured his place in the final to reignite a rivalry which is developing into what could be one of the great rivalries of modern tennis. The clash tomorrow in NYC will be their latest in a Grand Slam since their 5 hour thriller at the Australian Open this year, where the opportunity for Murray's first Grand Slam is once again at stake. The Australian Open was the first tournament Murray played under the tutelage of Ivan Lendl, and since then Murray seems to have moved forward and developed as a player, accomplishing his greatest achievement in becoming the Olympic champion. It seems ripe time for him to win his premiere slam. We have of course heard this many times before, but with his masterful performance at the Olympics, he should have a hugely positive experience to draw upon when he faces the most formidable man on a hard court for the past two years, who is chasing his fourth hard court major in a row. The past two matches have been a showcase for Djokovic's staggering defensive capabilities as the mighty hitting del Potro was unable to batter through the Serbian stronghold and nor was the dogged David Ferrer. Dubbed the 'elastic man', his ability to redirect powerful drives and retrieve normally unreturnable serves has been more daunting than his aggressive game. It's almost impossible to hit through him. But Murray has several more weapons to trouble him, and a backhand that can match Djokovic's pound for pound.

A possible key to the match is how well Murray serves - if he keeps his percentages high and plays with enough variation to keep Djokovic off balance he'll be able to take earlier strikes and not trade too much from the baseline. The more capable volleyer, Murray has to be looking to shorten the points and finish at the net when possible, because getting into protracted rallies with Djokovic does not bode well when the Serb is defending the way he is currently. He has to move Djokovic side to side and try to draw him into the forecourt where he is less comfortable coming forward. Expect plenty of sublime passing shots from both tomorrow. For Djokovic, he is the man to beat, realistically speaking. If he executes the way he has been doing he's going to be almost insurmountable on this surface, particularly if he combines his phenomenal defence with an aggressive mindset. Murray will play plenty of touch shots, and Djokovic needs to be ready to take those types of shots on and play as close to the baseline as possible.

It's a tantalising prospect and a superb way to end the year of Grand Slams. My prediction:

A 5 set classic, Murray the victor. 

The Future of Rafael Nadal

After pulling out of both the Olympics and now the US Open due to his perpetual problems with tendonitis, Rafael Nadal's future and longevity in the game has once again come into question. Although his chronic tendonitis has not derailed him substantially since 2009 when he was forced to miss Wimbledon, this is the first time since then that he has pulled out of a major, temporarily curtailing his pursuit of Roger Federer's all time Grand Slam tally, which stands at 17. Following the French Open and another tremendous season on clay, it looked as if he was returning to his best form and poised to finish the year with multiple slams, but instead he was ousted unceremoniously at Wimbledon by one hit wonder Lukas Rosol, and now will have to wait patiently till next season to resume the chase. The patience Nadal has in abundance as one of the most stoical and philosophical players on the tour, but the ground lost could be quite substantial by the start of the next year.

Nadal however has said very wisely that ranking is the least of his concerns. Recuperation is paramount for him and as we have seen in the past, he has been able to recover and come back even stronger each time after being derailed by injury. Furthermore, his doctor has said that the injury is not a serious career-ending one, but that it requires a substantial amount of rest. To look at it from a coldly objective perspective, the scenario is better than would the news have been the dreaded prelude to the end of his career - thankfully for Nadal and his legions of fans, his career has not been entirely and definitely decided by his injuries, yet .

Some have suggested that Nadal should start skipping all non-mandatory events and perform at the bare minimum of Masters series tournaments to save himself for the Grand Slams, similar to the Williams sisters approach to the women's tour. Perhaps he may have to out of necessity, but for Nadal, who hungers for match practice and wins, it seems completely opposite to the way he plays and treats the game. Very much a momentum player, a lack of match fitness outside of the Grand Slams would possibly be damaging for his overall game. I cannot see Nadal doing something as drastic as foregoing all non-mandatory events, but as he is doing now, continue preserving his health and thinking of the future so as to avoid an irreparable injury.

For slightly more selfish reasons, people and myself included miss Nadal because it is simply not the same without him. The US Open which has been underway for two days now still feels as if there is a huge gap which his presence normally fills in Grand Slams; it's the energy, the insatiable tenacity, the indomitable will to win and the sheer excitement of seeing Nadal hit his signature, outrageous passing shots that make people miss him so much. He says he would like to return, if healthy, to play the next Davis Cup fixture for Spain - here's hoping he recovers with and rejoins the company of his top 4 peers with the utmost alacrity.

Nadal Wins Record 8th Monte Carlo Masters

Monte Carlo remained a clay constructed stronghold for Rafael Nadal today, after he defeated Novak Djokovic in resounding fashion to claim the tournament for the 8th consecutive time, snapping a 7 match losing streak to the Serb in the process. His octet of titles is a staggering achievement, and will likely never be repeated by another player. He holds the record for most consecutive titles won at one tournament; most consecutive titles at a Masters series tournament and and a host of other records which can only attest further to his complete domination of the surface. But he was up against a man threatening to create blots on that record after he handed two defeats in clay finals to Nadal last year without even dropping a set. A lot was on the line for Nadal today, but he produced a commanding performance to subdue an already subdued looking Novak Djokovic.

All elements of his game were clicking today as he managed to buffer himself against the attacking strategies Djokovic had used so successfully against him in their last 7 encounters. He played consistently aggressively with excellent depth off both wings, changed pace expertly and most noteworthy, served with conviction, direction and variety against the best returner in the world right now. He dictated points for the majority of the match and did not get sucked into the same tactics which had failed in his previous attempts to stop Djokovic during his imperial run which started last year. Djokovic was visibly not at his best today, committing over double his winner count in unforced errors, but that does not detract from Nadal's fine performance. By habitude, Monte Carlo is the springboard from which Nadal galvanises himself to dominate during the clay court season up to Wimbledon, and this was a hugely encouraging display from the world no.2 which banishes the haunt Djokvic has put upon him for the past year or so. Even though Djokovic showed last year that he could stay with Nadal on clay, and that this year he will still be his most dangerous competitor, it is incredible to think that every time Nadal steps on the clay for the first time, his year starts for real, and that he is still the man to beat on la terre battue.

Djokovic wins Miami

A superb performance from Novak Djokovic oversaw stolid resistance from Andy Murray in the Sony Ericsson Open to secure a third Miami title for the world no.1. Murray defeated Djokovic recently in Dubai and convincingly, and having benefited from two walkovers most would have expected him to have the physical edge over the Serb. But Djokovic quickly established a level of play that Murray struggled to keep up with and took the first set with ease at 6-1, coming through a 10 minute plus fourth game to break the Scot and take control of the match. The second set was much, much tighter and on display was brilliant re-direction of pace from both players, astounding defence and some punishing rallies in the Miami heat. Murray and Djokovic are very similar players, but the fine line which distinguishes one from the other was visible yesterday throughout the match, and that was ultimately the difference in the second set tiebreaker. After having recovered a mini break after going down 2-0 in the breaker, Murray gave the initiative straight back by double faulting to go 3-1 down. A Djokovic victory seemed inevitable after that point, and he comfortably saw the match out. Murray is still slightly lacking in mental fortitude when he needs it the most, and should he have held his nerve in the tiebreaker, he would have given himself a good chance to clinch the third set. Of course, it is all very well to suggest that it is a weakness to lack nerves of steel at the right moments, but Murray sometimes needs to hold his focus longer so he doesn't throw those moments away, as he did in the tiebreaker - another example was at the Australian Open where he led Djokovic by two sets to one. Djokovic comparatively held his nerve at those pressure points in the match, ensuring he was watertight when he needed to be, playing with controlled aggression, and notably he served uncannily when Murray started knocking on the door during his service games. Djokovic has to be pleased with his form right now going into the clay court season. He hasn't exerted himself unduly by getting into any marathons with Rafael Nadal (that is likely to be scheduled in Monte Carlo) and he has so far defended the points he accrued from last year, dropping little ground to his chasers, Nadal and Federer. The prospect of an early clay showdown between Nadal and Djokovic in Monte Carlo could set the tone for the rest of the clay court season and it will be fascinating to see how it shapes the road to Roland Garros.

Australian Open 2012: Reactions

I think it's fitting that my response to one of the most exhilarating Grand Slams in the recent history of tennis has taken a while to be mulled over and committed in writing. For how do you do justice to a 6 hour long Grand Slam final (the longest Grand Slam final in history) in which two men combined to produce possibly the most titanic physical and mental battle the sport has ever seen? My impression after the match was of incomprehensibility; an inability to put into words what had just been witnessed. It was an epic of such mountainous proportions that victory and defeat became but circumstantial in the grand scheme of what was surely one of the great finals from any sport in the world. It transcended the boundaries of tennis as a niche sport, grabbed the attention of sports fans around the world, and did wonders for a sport that some have foolishly accused of not being capable of brutality. It has become tiring in the past 6 months to say it, but both men have contributed to raising the bar once again, accomplishing history and producing another dimension to the golden era. It has set the tone (and the bar) for the rest of the year, as well as setting off feverish speculation over what could happen this season, which just so happens to be an Olympic one. Here are my thoughts, predictions, and pontifications from the Australian Open.

What more to say about Novak Djokovic? He survived the longest Grand Slam in history, facing no less than one of the greatest warriors to ever play the game, and he did it 48 hours after another 5 set epic with Andy Murray, in which he was similarly faced with defeat in the final set. He looked a beaten man at times in both matches, but Djokovic has a well of unshakeable determination these days that he can reach into when he needs it the most. The man has become almost nerveless under pressure, and unflinchingly brave at crunch time in matches. The reaction after the final was not just of awe at the historic event, but partly the astonishment that Djokovic had managed to turn the match around against a man known for being a mental giant, and following what was a seismic shift in momentum at the time. Momentum is an almost impossible thing to stop, but Djokovic has shown time and time again that he can stand in front of the freight train, take its impact and power his way back into the match when all the odds are against him. It takes a phenomenal exertion of willpower to do that, and Djokovic did it twice in a row when it mattered the most. Mentally he is the man of steel right now, and it will take a mighty loss to dent his confidence, which is sky high and beyond right now. As for his tennis, his return game was more lethal than ever, reducing Rafael Nadal to admiration of what he can do with that shot, and offering praise for a weapon which was without doubt the reason he managed to fight his way back into the match. He may well be the best returner in history, better than Connors, better than Agassi. His groundstrokes were heavy, impeccably measured and devastating for Rafael Nadal, who was only intermittently able to control the pace of the bombardment. His forehand was firing, and his backhand was unbreakable as ever. Of the top 4,  he has the fewest weaknesses, and they are only relative ones at that. His forehand is however still the best target to attack, and Nadal went to that spot with varying success; and a potential element lacking in his game is his unwillingness to attack the net when the opportunity arises. But the bottom line is that it will take a stupendous performance, such as that produced by Nadal or Murray to even get close to defeating him. While Djokovic has emerged the victor, there is hope at least that Djokovic's hunters will eventually get to overturn him at a Grand Slam.

For Rafael Nadal, it was a hugely positive progression. After being virtually smoked in every match he played with Djokovic since Miami, he pushed Djokovic to the limit and then some. He forced him to struggle for his 5th Grand Slam and into a deciding set, which he very nearly clinched, and probably should have done after leading 4-2 with the wind of momentum firmly behind him. He was playing aggressively, serving effectively and looked re-energised after eking out the 4th set so emphatically, before he made the possibly fatal error of missing a simple backhand putaway serving at 30-15. At the time it was a hugely significant miss and gave Djokvic the impetus he needed to turn the match around, but Nadal was quick in his post-mortem conference to dismiss the impression of the shot as the reason he was broken, and eventually lost the match. He instead pointed lucidly and not lamentedly to the brilliance of Djokovic's return game - and it was an incredible return that forced Nadal to spill a forehand on break point that enabled him to get back into the match. It is not only admirable for Nadal to recognise that the Serb may well be the greatest returner in the history of the game, but healthy for him to acknowledge that it was not just an error on his part that lost the match, but also the shot which (not coincidentally) bailed him out of the US Open semi-final when he was match point down. Despite suffering arguably the most crushing loss of his career, he left with a remarkable sense of direction, and  the knowledge that he has the ability to put himself in positions to win against his nemesis again. And should they meet once more at the French Open, I cannot imagine that he will lose to Djokovic on his home turf. As far as paradoxes go, it was an encouraging loss. There were however still elements where Djokovic's superiority was apparent, and which Nadal must improve quickly. He avowed to play inside the court and be more aggressive against Djokovic, but for the majority of the match he reverted to his defensive mode and stayed well behind the baseline in rallies and when receiving serve. Too often he fell into his own trap of going crosscourt into Djokovic's backhand with the same ineffective result, and was too predictable with his tactics. On the other hand, he served better than in the US Open final, producing 10 aces, and during the tournament seemed to have improved his sliding left hander serve, which worked particularly effectively against Berdych and Federer. However it still baffles commentators where his huge 130 mph+ serve which he unveiled at the 2010 US Open has gone to. He needs it more than ever, and it would be a big weapon to mobilise against the return game of Djokovic.

It was Djokovic's third Australian Open, his fifth Grand Slam, and his third major in a row starting with Wimbledon last year. He has his sights set on the French Open and the accomplishment of the 'Djoker slam', and should he manage that, well, the effect on the tennis world would be earth shattering. He would be the only man other than Rod Laver to achieve four slams in a row, and furthermore in the presence of two of the greatest players to play the game, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. After winning the Laureus Award for Sportsman of the Year, he was quoted as saying he believes anything as possible, including winning Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the Olympics. One thing is for certain: Nadal, Federer and Murray will all be out to make sure that feat is a bridge too far.

Australian Open Preview

What a difference a year makes. Flash back a year to last year's Australian Open when all eyes were on Rafael Nadal winnning his fourth grand slam in a row to accomplish a calendar slam - or what was being affectionately called the 'Rafa slam'. Djokovic at this time was still, relatively speaking, a footnote to the Nadal-Federer duopoly, who had won the last four majors between them, but with his Davis Cup triumph he was starting to gain ground, and the footnote was to be replaced with an exclamation mark at the end of his name.

This year the narratives are richer and more compelling than ever. Many commentators have remarked that the men's draw is more open than it has ever been, and that this may be one of the rare occasions when the top 4 players are all at their strongest at the same time. Novak Djokovic is attempting to keep his Grand Slam narrative going by claiming his third in a row, and even though he hasn't played a tournament yet this year, he looked imperious at the Abu Dhabi exhibition, dismantling both Federer and Ferrer at the loss of less than 10 games. Nadal, who has been afflicted by a shoulder injury for the past two months has assured that it is in perfect condition, and in his presser declared that he feels reinvigorated to get back to his best form, armed with a slightly heavier racket which he hopes will produce more power. Federer finished the year strongly by winning the World Tour Finals, and with the Olympics his main priority, there will be extra motivation for him this year to get back to the top. An injury scare with his back has apparently subsided, and Federer will feel confident that he can take anyone who stands in his way and fulfil what might be called his phoenix rising from the ashes narrative. Perhaps the most fascinating intrigue of the top 4 is Andy Murray and his new coach Ivan Lendl. As I commented in a previous post, I expect Lendl could do wonders for Murray's game and mentality, and if everything materialises correctly for him, it might well result in his first major. It is an enticing multiplicity of prospects for the top 4, and a fascinating start a year which is also an Olympic one.

Draw Analysis:

Novak Djokovic has by far the easiest draw, and is unlikely to be tested until the fourth round, where he may meet the rolling Canadian with a fearsome serve, Milos Raonic. And even then, his return game and superior ground strokes should be enough to see neutralise the rising star's heavy game. He may face David Ferrer in the quarter finals, but it is hard to see him staying with Djokovic despite a convincing win over him at the World Tour Finals two months ago. Federer has the next smoothest passage to the semi finals, with Mardy Fish as the highest seed in his quarter. He has a joker in the pack via a possible meeting with Ivo Karlovic in the third round, but realistically the giant Croat does not have a chance of breaking the Swiss' still running grand slam quarter final streak. The mercurial Dolgopolov Jr. is in his quarter, but it is hard to see him troubling the four time winner, as his game is simply too erratic to produce a consistent performance (he scraped through in 5 sets today). The one big name in there is the talented and powerful Juan Martin del Potro, who is still on the road back to the top and possesses the firepower to blast anyone, including Federer, off the court.

Nadal has a tricky route to the semi-finals with John Isner as a looming third round opponent. Isner gave Nadal a very real scare at the French Open in the first round last year, and on hard courts his huge serve will be even more potent for an upset. Other big servers include compatriot Feliciano Lopez and Kevin Anderson. Tomas Berdych is a potential quarter final opponent for Nadal, and has been playing some excellent tennis recently with his strong semi final finish at the World Tour Finals acting as a strong reminder of how good he can be when he catches fire. Berdych has given Nadal trouble in the past, and has the best chance of inflicting a shock defeat on the Spaniard.

At the other end of the spectrum, Murray has an extremely difficult draw. His first round opener against the plucky Ryan Harrison is the hardest among the top 4, and the young American won't go down without a fight. He may meet Gael Monfils in the fourth round, who is just coming off an excellent showing at Doha where he defeated Rafael Nadal, but even more alarmingly he has the dark horse for the title in his corner, Jo Wilfried Tsonga. The blockbusting Frenchman won Doha recently and was arguably the second best player in the world at the year end, and is looking poised to play the role of spoiler at the grand slams once again. Unfortunately for Murray, if the players meet their seedings in the draw, he will likely have to go through Tsonga, then Djokovic, and then either Federer or Nadal in the final, a monumental task - but a possible one under the new tutelage of Ivan Lendl.

Semi-final predictions:

Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal

Thoughts on Ivan Lendl, Andy Murray's New Coach

It had been rumoured that Ivan Lendl would be announced as Andy Murray's new coach, and the Scot confirmed the other day that he has signed on. It will be fascinating to see the impact Lendl might possibly have on his game, and how the 8 time Grand Slam champion can contribute to helping Murray towards his first. It is also interesting because of the parallel between Lendl and Murray, in that Lendl took several attempts before he won his first major, and similarly Murray has made three slam finals but come up short each time without winning a set. Lendl is the perfect inspiration for Murray to remain persistent and to keep positive despite his numerous failures and set backs throughout the year. 2011 has been Murray's best year by far, in which he made a final and three semi finals at all four Grand Slams, and Lendl could be the key to crack the nut and go one further by winning his first major. He may also try to instil in Murray the icy resilience and level headed demeanour which many remember Lendl for, and this may be beneficial in helping Murray overcome the troughs in his year that usually follow from taking tough losses in Grand Slams. After losing in the 2010 and 2011 Australian Opens, Murray fell into the doldrums each time, playing negative tennis and losing to players he shouldn't normally be losing to. Lendl may be able to help Murray overcome these periodical problems, improve his on court attitude, and manage him so he peaks at the majors and avoids losses he shouldn't really be enduring for a player of his calibre.

How Lendl will affect Murray's strategy and playing style will remain to be seen and we can't expect to see much difference in the next few weeks up until the Australian Open. But perhaps he will encourage Murray to execute a more aggressive approach and adopt more positive tactics on court. However, Murray has had professional disagreements in the past, notably with Brad Gilbert, and he is stubborn enough not to listen to advice suggesting to him that he needs to play more consistently aggressive tennis. But I think that the presence of Lendl is a very positive collaboration and that Murray will be willing to listen to what he has to say, and to put into action counsel which may well earn him his first Grand Slam. It is a bold, significant move which goes with the flow of tennis' continual improvement under the aegis of the current top 3, Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, and signals that Murray is ready to compete amongst them for the majors.

2011 Davis Cup Final Reaction: Spain def. Argentina

So the Spanish Armada sails again, reclaiming the Davis Cup through a monumental struggle against a courageous Argentinian team. Rafael Nadal had the grand honour of clinching the title for his nation, and for the final match of the tennis year, it was a fitting, epic battle replete with marvellous and audacious shotmaking, incredible athleticism and a towering display of willpower from both the eventual victor, and his devastated opponent, Juan Martin del Potro. The atmosphere was more raucous than at any other tournament this year and the Argentinian contingent pound for pound matched the greater number of home supporters in the magnificent stadium in Seville. Each man energised his own support base and they in turn gave the spur to both players to keep fighting and find something extra, a dynamic which makes the Davis Cup so exciting to watch.

Del Potro gave the Argentinian supporters plenty to cheer for when he made a sprint start that knocked Nadal off his feet for the whole first set and at the start of the second. The Tower from Tandil, as he is endearingly called, opened the match with a barrage of cannon ball groundstrokes to hit a flurry of winners past a nervy looking Nadal, forcing the Spaniard far back behind the baseline. It was a firestorm of incredible hitting that carried on without hesitation into the second set where it looked like an unthinkable upset was now a distinct possibility. But Nadal crucially kicked his game up several levels after being broken straight away at the start of the second and managed to start hitting the ball bigger and deeper, dictating more rallies and mentally shaking himself out of the shellshock which had scuppered his game up to that point. Both men traded service holds until 5-4 when Del Potro faltered while serving to stay in it. It was a huge shot in the arm for Nadal and the first sign of nervousness from the Argentinian, who fell off the pace in the third set while the clay maestro dramatically increased his level, upping his aggression and winner count to shut his now flagging opponent out, 6-1. Now rolling along with wind in his sails the Spanish helmsman looked to do the same in the fourth set as he broke immediately. Del Potro looked shattered and overwhelmed by the task ahead of him, but incredibly despite all this he mounted a stubborn comeback, and managed to recoup the break to level at 2-2. However, the deficit was quickly resumed as Nadal broke to go 3-2 up, and by this point it seemed that the match was almost entirely over.

It was last stand territory for del Potro, and he responded magnificently, finding the magnitude of shot that earned him the first set. and smashed through Nadal's defences to break immediately back.. It is a truly terrifying sight to watch him rocket the ball so cleanly and powerfully, and he is perhaps the one player that everyone on tour fears to play more than any other when he is finding the lines. After blasting a forehand at Nadal to force an error on break point he launched himself into the air with renewed vigour, and with the Argentinian supporters making their voices heard as he broke to lead 5-3 he looked poised to force a decider. However the set's see-saw like logic would not permit the set to finish by virtue of a service break and Nadal clawed the break back with a brilliant forehand pass down the line. After holding to draw level at 5-5, he engineered what many would have assumed to be the definitive break of serve, but while del Potro looked like a man who had absolutely nothing left, he refused to yield and struggled his way to force an opportunity to take the set into a breaker, breaking to 30 with his battering ram forehand. But Rafa was not to be denied, and he subsequently ran away with the tiebreaker to secure another Davis Cup for Spain and put the spoils on Argentina's still un-satiated campaign for its first.

Spain is a Davis Cup powerhouse right now, and is arguably pound for pound the best team nation of the last decade. It has a depth of quality that few other nations come close to matching and has proved that even without Nadal it can prevail - as it did against Argentina in the 2009 final, which was also on hard court and not on home territory. But with Nadal as the spearhead it inspires confidence in Spain's ability to clinch future ties in pressure situations. It must have been a huge release of pressure for Nadal after enduring a year of heavy losses to Novak Djokovic, and to have the honour of clinching the Davis Cup over a brilliant effort from Juan Martin del Potro could well provide the impetus for him to overturn his difficulties this year and rekindle the passion he has admitted to be lacking of late. Praise however must also be justly lavished on David Ferrer, who vanquished del Potro two days before Nadal in an arduous five setter and shares the victory every bit as much as Nadal. If Tito Vasquez' strategy of winning the non-Nadal matches worked, starting with del Potro defeating Ferrer, the outcome may well have been reversed. But Ferrer proved like Nadal that he is a man for the big stage and weathered the onslaught to put Spain in a commanding position after the first day, and would have been fully capable of clinching the tie if it went to a fifth rubber. They have a daunting Davis Cup record between them with an untarnished singles resume on the clay, and are undoubtedly the strongest singles pairing in the world right now. For both men it is a humble victory for the nation and not for either of them individually, but simultaneously the victory will give them the confidence to start 2011 as strongly as they ended it. Although for Nadal this year was undoubtedly one of his worst, and he bowed out of the World Tour Finals looking lacklustre, he still won the French Open and the Davis Cup - two tournaments we can say he comfortably owns when he is on form. Ferrer on the other hand produced his finest season to date. He beat two different world no.1s (Nadal in Australia, Djokovic in London), made the World Tour Finals semi-final and helped Spain secure the Davis Cup, as well as performing almost all year round at his highest ability. They are both excellent ambassadors for the sport, and their dedication to find the energy to win the Davis Cup the week after the World Tour Finals was a phenomenal display of sheer mental determination.

To close, it would be an insult not to remark on the tremendous performance of Juan Martin del Potro throughout the Davis Cup and the bright future many have predicted for him. The pressure was all on his shoulders, and for someone we forget is still young, he committed himself admirably despite being on the losing side twice in a row. He pushed both Ferrer and Nadal as far as he could and fought relentlessly to prolong a tie which was skewed favourably towards the Spanish, summoning some his best tennis for the biggest occasion. There were not just flashes of his US Open victory in 2009, but extended examples of how good del Potro could be next year; in the first set against Nadal he played a flawless set of outstanding attacking tennis, and looked convincing enough at that point to have won the match. Against Ferrer he led by two sets to one and perhaps should have closed it out in the fourth set, but was eventually beaten by the Spaniard who has a signature habit of not staying dead. Del Potro was understandably hurting a lot after both losses (mentally and physically) but the signs are encouraging for an immensely talented player many still project to be a future world no.1. His rise this year into the top 20 from outside the top 200  has been nothing short of staggering, and we can read his last two performances of the year as a warning shot to the rest of the tour. Currently ranked 11, he inhabits the position of a danger man no one wants to face in the early stages of a Grand Slam, and he gave both of the two best players in the world a scare at the French Open and at Wimbledon, managing to take a set off Djokovic and Nadal and threatening to pull off a huge upset. He has the ability and the belief that he can return to the heights of winning his first major, and it will provide one of the most interesting narratives next year, one that may even impact on those of the current top 4.

2011 Davis Cup Final Preview: Spain vs Argentina

In a rematch of the 2008 final, Spain will face off against Argentina in front of a home crowd in Seville, Spain. The Spaniards are heavily favoured to raise the Davis Cup again, and for the Argentinians the odds would appear to be stacked monumentally against them. It is possibly the most daunting prospect of defeating a clay specialist nation on its own turf, against the greatest clay court player of all time and his formidable wingman, David Ferrer over 5 sets, and an excellent doubles team in Feliciano Lopez and Fernando Verdasco.

Argentina will be relying heavily on Juan Martin Del Potro to make an upset by defeating David Ferrer in the second singles rubber and attempt to put the Spanish doubles team under pressure going into the second day. The coach of Argentina, Tito Vasquez, has already made a bold gamble to front Juan Monaco for the opening rubber against Rafael Nadal instead of the superior Nalbandian, who is scheduled to play the doubles with Eduardo Schwank, and the logic would appear that he is hoping for Del Potro to win, and to take the doubles the following day. One can only conclude that the strategy with Monaco is to draw the match against Nadal out, because it is unforeseeable that he would be able to defeat the King of Clay, who has never lost on clay in the Davis Cup, and to win as many matches around those involving Nadal, as possible. Unfortunately, it is a strategy that doesn't make a lot of sense - the approach should be to win every match, not to build it around calculating the matches which can be won or lost. The efficacy of his strategy will be borne out after the two singles matches  are played tomorrow.

Certainly, the talented, huge hitting Del Potro has an excellent chance against Ferrer, who has admitted to feeling tired, and being forced to extend his tennis season because of the Davis Cup final. The tall Argentinian is a very good clay courter and moves very well on the surface, and with his powerful groundstrokes combined with what has been reported to be a zippy surface, he may well be able to hit through Ferrer. But we should not expect less than everything from Ferrer, who is an excellent clay player and a defensive fortress -no matter how tired the Spaniard is, Del Potro will need to be striking a clean consistent ball against him to have a chance.

It is difficult to envision the Argentinians upending the Spaniards on home territory, but there is a glimmer of a chance, and will depend firstly on Del Potro getting a win over Ferrer - if Spain take the first two matches, the tie could well be over. But even then the pressure will still be on them to secure the doubles on saturday, which is another uphill task against two experienced players in Lopez and Verdasco. I can't see past a convincing win for Spain with the intimidating Rafael Nadal at the helm of one of the strongest Davis Cup teams in recent history.

Prediction: Spain: 4 Argentina: 1

ATP World Tour Finals 2011 Reaction: Roger Federer def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-3, 6-7, 6-3

He looked the strongest going into the tournament, and Roger Federer once again proved his prowess on the blue courts of the O2 in London, eventually overcoming a threatening fightback from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to set a new record with his 6th year ending championships title, as well as a 70th title. He has not lost a match since the US Open and inhabits the identical position he was in at the end of 2010 after winning at the O2, where many expected him to win the Australian Open. As ever tongues must be held, since coming off perhaps one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory; no one expected Djokovic to go on the tear that he eventually did - but look where we are now. It certainly portends well for Federer, who (as we are incessantly reminded) is in the twilight years of his career, but was able to summon the spark that led him to his first year end championships back in 2003.

The first set was a nervy trade of blows between Federer, until the critical moment came on Tsonga's service game when serving at 3-4 down he let Federer back into a point he should have finished with an easy putaway volley. Federer scrambled brilliantly and managed to put a backhand pass past Tsonga to engineer break point, before breaking to go up 5-3 and secure the first set. From that point on it looked plain sailing, and when Federer broke early in the second set, it looked like the final was over with Tsonga appearing spent. But the Frenchman admirably fought back, capitalising on a weak service game from Federer when serving for the championship and saving a match point in the tiebreaker to force a decider. The mercurial Frenchman had started to gain the upper hand in the rallies, and the match was beginning to resemble his magnificent comeback at Wimbledon. Tsonga must be a a frightening prospect to play against when he begins to snowball in confidence and power, and that's what appeared to be happening late in the second and at the start of the third, as he saved a match point with a crushing forehand, and was sending down booming serves. At this point Federer looked to be hanging on, but as he always manages to do, he picked the right moment to push for the killing stroke and put a stopper on Tsonga's momentum, breaking him midway through the final set and eventually serving it out. Although this was not his best performance of the tournament, Federer did want champions do and seized the moment, this time without faltering as he has done at other junctures this year.

Portents aside, what Federer has done this year is remarkable, even if he has been estranged from a Grand Slam since the Australian Open in 2010. He made four major semi finals and won the World Tour Finals when he could have easily been deflated to some crushing losses, one of them to his stubborn opponent, Tsonga, and showed he still has the game to compete with his younger contemporaries. As for Tsonga, he still inhabits the position of being on the cusp of accomplishing something astonishing, a Grand Slam perhaps, but chances are he would have to go through Djokovic, Nadal and Federer to do it, possibly an unfair ask.

Novak Djokovic vs David Ferrer - Live Close Up Reaction

For the second year in a row I visited the O2 Arena in London to see the ATP World Tour Finals last wednesday, where I observed very fortunately from the front row a group match, between Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer. The atmosphere is as they say, electric, which is appropriate both in terms of the neon blue aesthetic of the games and the sea blue courts, and the ambience of anticipation and excitement of the guarantee that you will see one of the top players in the world. It really is a unique venue and I would encourage anyone who hasn't been to visit it once during the final two years that the World Tour Finals is hosted there.

The first match whichever session you attend is a doubles match, and that day I was lucky enough to see the top doubles team of Bob and Mike Bryan in action, who comfortably dispatched the Swedish pairing of Robert Lindstedt and Horia Tecau. Although only around half the stadium capacity turned up for the doubles, you can learn a lot about technique from watching the doubles, and there can be no better benchmark these days than the almost unstoppable Bryan pair. Both brothers are super athletes with virtually no weaknesses in their respective games; they share phenomenal reaction speed at the net, have incredible court awareness and very rarely err when it comes to shot selection, which in doubles is paramount considering the rallies are generally shorter and frequently require fast decision making. I saw all of that while I was there although the match was over in barely an hour, but it was a pleasure watching them dismantle another very good doubles team. It is often said that either brother would easily make the top 50 if they chose to play in singles, and I fully believe that. Afterwards they both very kindly signed my programme and took the time to talk to their fans, which was great to see.

Another half an hour later and the singles match was about to start, with the suspense slowly being built up for Djokovic and Ferrer. It is superbly done, cinematic in execution and winds the crowd up perfectly for the match. I had a perfect perpendicular court side view where I could see both players with perfect clarity, and I took the rare opportunity to observe what you perhaps can't observe so finely when watching it on television. Both players are explosive movers; Djokovic does so much with his split step and his anticipation of where the ball was going was impressive. Ferrer is similarly fast out of the blocks when on the run, and the microsteps he takes to get in position before striking the ball are phenomenally quick and precise, and a great model for those learning the game to (attempt to) imitate. What particularly impressed me with Ferrer that night however was the depth of his groundstrokes when he was under attack. He keeps an incredible length when under fire, and was able to turn defence into attack or a forced error from Djokovic countless times - as I say to people who I know  me, depth can be every bit as effective as raw power, and Ferrer is a paragon of that game. And it was partly Ferrer's incredible consistency of depth, combined with his willingness to attack, which gained him the victory. He also served superbly, which he has done for most of the year, and that allowed him to get on top of the points early.  For me, it was one of Ferrer's greatest performances, and he convincingly conquered the world no.1 6-3, 6-1. Unfortunately, despite Ferrer's brilliance, I didn't get to see Djokovic completely in full flight, partly because Ferrer didn't let him, but also because he has been for the past month in a state of what he terms 'overload', and he spent the match struggling with his groundstrokes and also his serve (which may or may not be related to the shoulder injury which has hindered him recently). Nonetheless, I was able to observe the motion of his groundstrokes which seem to produce so much easy power, the shots he 'unlocked' this year when Djokovic took over the world and accomplished one of the greatest years in the history of tennis.

ATP World Tour Finals 2011 Preview

The clash between the top 8 players in the world commences this Sunday in what must be one of the most anticipated year end championships in a long while. What has been dubbed the 5th Grand Slam promises some scintillating clashes and the emerging consensus among tennis commentators is that although the big 4 are the obvious front runners, there is a good potential for some high profile upsets. Most prominently, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been drawn in the same group and will be playing the most anticipated group match in the World Tour Finals this year, while world no.1 Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will face off in the other group.

The front runner is surely Federer, on a hot streak with two straight titles in Basel and at the Paris Masters - one of the few Masters tournaments to evade the maestro - and playing commanding attacking tennis. It would be a huge shock to see Federer bow out before the semi finals, who seems to thrive during the indoor season, and there will be no obstacle of surface transition as there could be for Rafael Nadal. The 02 is a court that plays very similar to the Paris Masters (slow, low bounce) and that only helps Federer's cause for making an historic win of 6 year end championships, and putting the fear of his name back into the cohorts who have outdone him this year.

Nadal on the other hand is an unknown quantity; he lost early in Shanghai, skipped Paris and as traditionally regarded is thought to be on his weakest surface, and at his weakest time of the year. But Nadal is smart, and the decision to skip Paris was predicated on the upcoming Davis Cup final with Argentina not long after the World Tour Finals. One gets the sense that out of the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup, Nadal would rather sacrifice a win at the 02 for Davis Cup glory, and that he will be trying to conserve himself for a potentially arduous battle against the Argentinians, who are no slouch when it comes to clay, and are packing the heat of Juan Martin Del Potro and David Nalbandian. If that is the case we might see a looser Nadal than usual who is willing to flatten his shots out and kill matches earlier, and he may be even more dangerous than he usually is in that sense. Lest we forget, he made it to the final last year and played Federer pretty close, and despite the objectors Rafa has shown he has the ability and sheer determination to fight on surfaces that are not quite so propitious to his topspin founded game.

Djokovic, similar to Nadal, is erring on the side of fragility at the moment, and the big question still hanging in the air is over the severity of his shoulder injury which has forced him to retire on several occasions in the past few months (including a premature withdrawal against Jo Wilfried Tsonga in Paris earlier this month). He has however said that the shoulder was at 100% during serve practice, so we'll have to take his word for it, whether he appears to be downplaying it or not.With Novak's year, we can never count him out.

Murray is on a hot streak despite losing to Berdych in Paris last week, and has only lost one matche since bowing out of the US Open to Rafael Nadal, whom he defeated to take the Tokyo title, including a 6-0 final set in which he played superb attacking tennis. Murray seems to thrive in the pressure of playing in front of his home crowd, and will be energised somewhat by his new no.3 ranking accrued during the Asian hardcourt swing. It could well be his his first WTF final, following which the British media will go into its usual hyperbolic frenzy.

Finally, the competition cannot be underestimated and should not be considered as 'the rest'. David Ferrer is a nightmare to play against on his best days and no one should be surprised if he takes some high ranking scalps. Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych are dangerous, powerful hitters who are particularly proficient on indoor hard court, Tsonga having made the final of Paris last week, and Berdych being the winner recently of Beijing. Perhaps the weak link is Mardy Fish, but again, he has a game conducive to hard courts with his big serve and willingness to rush the net.

This is a highly open draw in terms of competitiveness, and don't be surprised if we see more than one surprise semi-finalist. Every man feels he has a chance against the next, and that should provide for some brilliant tennis.

WTA Championships Istanbul Preview

The top 8 WTA players commence their group stage matches for the year end championships tomorrow, and it should prove an interesting end to the year, even if it is lacking in heavyweights such as Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters. It does contain three new slam winners in Sam Stosur (US Open), Petra Kvitova (Wimbledon) and Li Na (French Open) but out of the three only Kvitova has looked in good enough form to possibly take the title, who won her first title since Wimbledon by winning Linz. Disappointingly none of them have built on their grand slam overtures by dominating the field and exploiting the power vacuum that is the absence of Serena Williams, and particularly in the case of Na she has even retrograded from her grand slam winning form, bombing out of her home tournament in Beijing before the semi finals. Of the 8 women, perhaps the one who has looked most impressive is Victoria Azarenka, who recently won Luxembourg without dropping a set, and there is also the tricky, in-form Agnieszka Radwanska, who won back to back titles in Tokyo and Beijing. The groups are as follows:

Red Group:                                                             White Group:

Caroline Wozniacki (1)                                            Maria Sharapova (2)

Petra Kvitova (3)                                                       Victoria Azarenka (4)

Vera Zvonareva (6)                                                   Li Na (5)

Agnieszka Radwanska (8)                                      Samantha Stosur (7)

The Red Group is probably more difficult to call than the White Group. Wozniacki has continued to look unconvincing as the world no.1 and is susceptible to tall big hitters like Petra Kvitova, and I don't see her having an easy match. Radwanska would probably match up best for her as she is not as aggressive as Zvonareva or Kvitova, but what Wozniacki has shown is that you she can lose to players not even in the top 10 this year. Provided Kvitova's game is not error strewn, I put her above Wozniacki as the most likely to make it out of the group stage. 

In the White Group Sharapova's name jumps out immediately simply because even at her worst she is terrifically difficult to put away, although her serve has let her down all year and remains a serious liability. Stosur has disappointed lately, probably as the result of a post US Open lull, but if she finds her A game she has the weapons to beat anyone in the group and I give her a chance to make the semis, if not to win the tournament. Li Na has looked the most vulnerable in the past few months and it is difficult to see her making it out of the group. Azarenka on the other hand should be able to succeed fairly comfortably past the round robin.

Predictions:

Red Group Semi Finalists: Kvitova, Wozniacki

White Group: Azarenka, Sam Stosur

Final: Azarenka def. Kvitova

Winter Preview

With the Asian hard court swing completed there are only two major events to the year left: the Paris masters, and the World Tour Finals in London. In some ways, this part of the season hasn't been much different from last year's; the players are understandably tired - Djokovic is out recovering from a back injury and Federer skipped the Shanghai masters to rest -, Nadal has entered his late year doldrums with a surprising loss to Florian Mayer and an inexplicable final set rollover in the final of Tokyo against Murray; and like primed clockwork, Murray has torn up the Asian hard courts with titles in Bangkok, Tokyo and Shanghai, and only one loss in his last 26 matches. Murray will be the favourite at the Paris Masters after his recent rampage, and he has been playing exceptional, aggressive tennis in the past 3 weeks or so which will put him in good stead to capture Paris on its ultra fast indoor surface.

However, it doesn't follow necessarily that he can sustain this into the World Tour Finals in November. Expect Federer to get all the practice he needs in Paris, and if Nadal manages to pull himself together I actually rate his chances quite highly to make the semi finals or better at the WTF. Djokovic is harder to ascertain. His recovery from the back injury which forced his withdrawal from the Davis Cup against Argentina could be a significant consideration, as well as his lack of match practice and general fatigue, but he still may have enough left in the tank to top off his golden year. That is not to say that Murray's success is dependent on the rest of the top 3 as in this kind of form he is capable of beating anyone, but it could provide an original ending to the year, should he manage to win the year end finals, and deny Djokovic a final coat of polish to his trophy heavy season.

US Open 2011 Men's Final Reaction: New Champion Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1

After just over 4 hours of intense all court, all out conflict with Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic has topped off a magnificent year by claiming his first US Open, and his third Grand Slam this season. Over a year that has got better and better for the Serb, the superlatives are becoming quickly exhausted but entirely justified for a season that is in contention for being the best compiled by any tennis player. He is one of only 6 players to win 3 Grand Slams in a year, which includes Rafael Nadal (only last year) and Roger Federer, and extended his dominance over the world no.2 Nadal to 6 straight wins.

All that has taken him to the peak of tennis was on display. His new found physical endurance and mental toughness; his geometrically precise backhand and powerful forehand; his aggressive court positioning and fluid movement; his ferocious return of serve - as well as the finer points which only champions have: bravery and the intangible ability to play clutch at the most pressured moments. It was a very familiar match to their last 5 encounters, following a pattern of play whereby Djokovic pinned Nadal with heavy groundstroke after heavy groundstroke, targeting Nadal's backhand until it broke down or forced a short reply. The first two sets were in all honesty a sedate affair in which Nadal's submission to the scoreline of 6-2 and 6-4 respectively, was borne both of being outplayed, and a seeming tentativeness from Nadal to attack Djokovic. After leading in both sets, Nadal dropped the breaks he had engineered very weakly by playing defensive, passive tennis and with a seeming lack of conviction that he could subdue Djokovic. By the time Djokovic broke to go two breaks up in the first set, he was the puppet master, pulling Nadal about on a string as he soaked up all the groundstrokes thrown at him and hit dropshots as casually as if it were an exhibition match. However, in the first two sets, apart from being up a break in both, Nadal never looked to trouble Djokovic from the baseline and was already struggling to defend his service games against the latter's superior returns. Despite Nadal's avowal to do something different in the final, he inexplicably did everything that he had been doing unsuccessfully against Djokovic all year. As I outlined in my preview of the final, I identified that Nadal's strategy with his forehand would be an important marker of success against Djokovic, as his usual pattern of play whereby he attacks the Serb's backhand with heavy topspin forehands, has proven to be futile in the recent past. Djokovic's backhand is so technically sound, that even Nadal's forehand cannot counter how smoothly he defends off that wing, taking the ball on the rise and being able to hit winners consistently down the line. Nadal continued to go crosscourt with the same play and time after time Djokovic was able to redirect the ball wider to Nadal's forehand and exploit the ground he had given up. Nadal also gave up ground by hitting shallow defensive slices, and although at times it had some effect, it more than often gave Djokovic the license to pick his spots.

Second, I said the serve would be key, as it is for anyone else playing Djokovic, in order to have the best chance to knock him off balance and try to take control of a point before he gets into a rally. Nadal served poorly, and even though Djokovic surely must be considered to be one of the best returners in the history of the game, a serve that lands in the middle of the service box barely travelling above 100mph and with no direction is wont to be returned with all the venom that Djokovic gave them the other night. Nadal's first serve average was a weak 107mph, and at one point he even hit one under 100mph. That kind of tentative, directionless serving is simply not good enough to trouble Djokovic, and Nadal knows it as he admitted in his presser that he had a terrible serving day. A year ago, his serve took him to his first US Open title, reaching speeds in excess of 130mph and ensuring he was only broken on serve a handful of times, but it seems to have regressed, and Nadal knows he has to address it in the coming months if he is to finish the year strongly.

But for all the plaudits Djokovic is deservedly receiving, Nadal must be applauded too. After being comprehensively outplayed in the first two sets, he mounted a ferocious comeback when it seemed as if the match was going to end in straight sets. Crucially, he changed his strategy in the third set, and started to attack Djokovic's forehand with the hugest topspin blasts from his forehand as he could muster. If Djokovic has the best down the line backhand in the sport, Nadal still has the most devastating down the line forehand, and when he began to crush more balls into that corner at around 2 games all it began to yield much more success as he began to hit more winners and force more errors off that wing. Djokovic still managed to break him, but Nadal was far from finished, summoning the legendary strength of will that defines him, and refusing to fall without a titanic fight. What followed was one of the greatest sets of tennis ever played: an astonishing display of some of the finest shotmaking and unbelievable athletic ability which lifted the tennis temporarily to an even higher plane than it is already on. The crowd reaction was indication enough, as many could not stifle their cries of disbelieving awe amidst watching rallies that were truly otherworldly. As with the Federer and Nadal match up, Nadal and Djokovic keep pushing each further and further to produce shots of previously inconceivable excellence. At 6-5 down in the third set, Nadal avoided going matchpoint down by winning what some have dubbed point of the tournament, quite possibly the year; a bruising rally over 20 strokes long in which both were virtually hitting winners at each other, only for either man to send each other's shots back. Earlier in the set, facing break point at 3-4 down, Djokovic finished an extended point almost identically, by hitting a backhand winner down the line. This was the standard of the points, and it was superhuman.

The brutal extended rallies of the third set however had by then run both athletes into the ground. Djokovic took a medical timeout, albeit at a rather contentious point in the 4th set while 1-0 up and before Nadal's service game, and Nadal appeared to have run out of gas completely. He was rolled 6-1 in the fourth and final set in antithesis to the spectacular battle that had preceded moments before as Djokovic managed a sprint finish, finding several forehand winners and ending on a flourish by lashing an inside out forehand past an exhausted Nadal. His fourth Grand Slam, his next target he professes to be the French Open, which would  make him, remarkably, the third man to complete the career Grand Slam within 5 years, along with the men he shadowed for so many years, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Furthermore, the year is not over yet, as how well he finishes the season will determine whether his really is the greatest year, with the World Tour Finals in November the last major title to win. Not just for Novak Djokovic, but for tennis, it has been an incredible year where boundaries have once again been broken and new standards set.

US Open 2011 Men's Final Preview: Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic

Of all the matches the Spaniard and the Serb have played this year, their 6th meeting will be the most fascinating. The year has come full circle, both from a time perspective, and because the US Open final last year was one of the turning points for Novak Djokovic, one of the sparks along with the Davis Cup that produced a chain reaction of wins and only two losses. It was at the US Open where Djokovic rediscovered his real ability. It was also the place where Rafael Nadal completed his career Grand Slam by winning the major which had eluded and seemed destined to elude him, for years. It holds a very strong significance for both men. But in terms of the future, whoever wins could have an impact on the shape of the year to come. Should Djokovic claim his 4th Grand Slam and beat Nadal for the 6th straight time, it will further consolidate his status as world no.1, and ensure that this year is considered one of the greatest seasons to have ever been compiled by a tennis player. Nadal will be left shattered by another loss and no further along in his task of defeating Djokovic. But if Nadal wins, and splits the slams two apiece for the year, he will have proven that despite his consecutive losses, he was able to beat the undisputed best player this year on the highest stage, and on his best surface. It may prove the impetus Nadal needs to overturn Djokovic's dominance over him and reassert his, claiming his 11th Grand Slam in the process and strengthening his already achieved status as one of the greatest to ever play the game. Nadal said he would draw inspiration from his win over Djokovic at the US last year and try to emulate that success tonight, and if he manages to red line his game like he did against Murray, he will give himself the best chance to finally avenge those 5 straight losses.

This is all to assume that Djokovic is still the man to beat. Which he probably is, but not without some caveats. Of all 4 Grand Slams, Djokovic has looked visibly vulnerable in his last 3 matches. Let us not forget that Federer held 2 match points against him in the last round, and that he had considerable difficulty putting away countryman Janko Tipsarevic until he was forced to retire, and looked unconvincing against Dolgopolov. Nadal on the other hand has looked progressively better with each match, and is close to his peak form with an excellent win over Murray. Nonetheless, Djokovic knows he has the weapons to beat Nadal, and feels confident staying with him on the baseline. He is also without doubt the best returner in the men's game at the moment, and will make Nadal pay for any short, predictable serves. The key for both men will be the serve. If Djokovic serves well, he'll put the pressure on Nadal to defend his service games, and if he serves strongly he should manage to stop Djokovic getting into rallies and controlling at the baseline. The onus will be marginally heavier on Nadal to do more with his backhand and try to damage Djokovic with his forehand by changing his mode of attack by targeting Djokovic's relatively weaker forehand wing with inside out forehands. For Djokovic, how well he is hitting his backhand could make an important difference; in the match with Federer he wasn't hitting his patented down the line backhand with as much authority as we're used to seeing, but if he dials it in for the final it will prove as damaging to Nadal as it has done all year. As he has acknowledged, Nadal has to do something different, whilst retaining the elements which armed him well enough to beat the Serb at the same stage next year, and the grit and indomitable will which he is known for.

This will be a fascinating competition of unbreakable wills and pulsating shotmaking; my prediction:

Rafael Nadal to win in 5 sets.