Australian Open Preview

What a difference a year makes. Flash back a year to last year's Australian Open when all eyes were on Rafael Nadal winnning his fourth grand slam in a row to accomplish a calendar slam - or what was being affectionately called the 'Rafa slam'. Djokovic at this time was still, relatively speaking, a footnote to the Nadal-Federer duopoly, who had won the last four majors between them, but with his Davis Cup triumph he was starting to gain ground, and the footnote was to be replaced with an exclamation mark at the end of his name.

This year the narratives are richer and more compelling than ever. Many commentators have remarked that the men's draw is more open than it has ever been, and that this may be one of the rare occasions when the top 4 players are all at their strongest at the same time. Novak Djokovic is attempting to keep his Grand Slam narrative going by claiming his third in a row, and even though he hasn't played a tournament yet this year, he looked imperious at the Abu Dhabi exhibition, dismantling both Federer and Ferrer at the loss of less than 10 games. Nadal, who has been afflicted by a shoulder injury for the past two months has assured that it is in perfect condition, and in his presser declared that he feels reinvigorated to get back to his best form, armed with a slightly heavier racket which he hopes will produce more power. Federer finished the year strongly by winning the World Tour Finals, and with the Olympics his main priority, there will be extra motivation for him this year to get back to the top. An injury scare with his back has apparently subsided, and Federer will feel confident that he can take anyone who stands in his way and fulfil what might be called his phoenix rising from the ashes narrative. Perhaps the most fascinating intrigue of the top 4 is Andy Murray and his new coach Ivan Lendl. As I commented in a previous post, I expect Lendl could do wonders for Murray's game and mentality, and if everything materialises correctly for him, it might well result in his first major. It is an enticing multiplicity of prospects for the top 4, and a fascinating start a year which is also an Olympic one.

Draw Analysis:

Novak Djokovic has by far the easiest draw, and is unlikely to be tested until the fourth round, where he may meet the rolling Canadian with a fearsome serve, Milos Raonic. And even then, his return game and superior ground strokes should be enough to see neutralise the rising star's heavy game. He may face David Ferrer in the quarter finals, but it is hard to see him staying with Djokovic despite a convincing win over him at the World Tour Finals two months ago. Federer has the next smoothest passage to the semi finals, with Mardy Fish as the highest seed in his quarter. He has a joker in the pack via a possible meeting with Ivo Karlovic in the third round, but realistically the giant Croat does not have a chance of breaking the Swiss' still running grand slam quarter final streak. The mercurial Dolgopolov Jr. is in his quarter, but it is hard to see him troubling the four time winner, as his game is simply too erratic to produce a consistent performance (he scraped through in 5 sets today). The one big name in there is the talented and powerful Juan Martin del Potro, who is still on the road back to the top and possesses the firepower to blast anyone, including Federer, off the court.

Nadal has a tricky route to the semi-finals with John Isner as a looming third round opponent. Isner gave Nadal a very real scare at the French Open in the first round last year, and on hard courts his huge serve will be even more potent for an upset. Other big servers include compatriot Feliciano Lopez and Kevin Anderson. Tomas Berdych is a potential quarter final opponent for Nadal, and has been playing some excellent tennis recently with his strong semi final finish at the World Tour Finals acting as a strong reminder of how good he can be when he catches fire. Berdych has given Nadal trouble in the past, and has the best chance of inflicting a shock defeat on the Spaniard.

At the other end of the spectrum, Murray has an extremely difficult draw. His first round opener against the plucky Ryan Harrison is the hardest among the top 4, and the young American won't go down without a fight. He may meet Gael Monfils in the fourth round, who is just coming off an excellent showing at Doha where he defeated Rafael Nadal, but even more alarmingly he has the dark horse for the title in his corner, Jo Wilfried Tsonga. The blockbusting Frenchman won Doha recently and was arguably the second best player in the world at the year end, and is looking poised to play the role of spoiler at the grand slams once again. Unfortunately for Murray, if the players meet their seedings in the draw, he will likely have to go through Tsonga, then Djokovic, and then either Federer or Nadal in the final, a monumental task - but a possible one under the new tutelage of Ivan Lendl.

Semi-final predictions:

Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray
Roger Federer vs Rafael Nadal

ATP World Tour Finals 2011 Reaction: Roger Federer def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-3, 6-7, 6-3

He looked the strongest going into the tournament, and Roger Federer once again proved his prowess on the blue courts of the O2 in London, eventually overcoming a threatening fightback from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to set a new record with his 6th year ending championships title, as well as a 70th title. He has not lost a match since the US Open and inhabits the identical position he was in at the end of 2010 after winning at the O2, where many expected him to win the Australian Open. As ever tongues must be held, since coming off perhaps one of the most unpredictable seasons in recent memory; no one expected Djokovic to go on the tear that he eventually did - but look where we are now. It certainly portends well for Federer, who (as we are incessantly reminded) is in the twilight years of his career, but was able to summon the spark that led him to his first year end championships back in 2003.

The first set was a nervy trade of blows between Federer, until the critical moment came on Tsonga's service game when serving at 3-4 down he let Federer back into a point he should have finished with an easy putaway volley. Federer scrambled brilliantly and managed to put a backhand pass past Tsonga to engineer break point, before breaking to go up 5-3 and secure the first set. From that point on it looked plain sailing, and when Federer broke early in the second set, it looked like the final was over with Tsonga appearing spent. But the Frenchman admirably fought back, capitalising on a weak service game from Federer when serving for the championship and saving a match point in the tiebreaker to force a decider. The mercurial Frenchman had started to gain the upper hand in the rallies, and the match was beginning to resemble his magnificent comeback at Wimbledon. Tsonga must be a a frightening prospect to play against when he begins to snowball in confidence and power, and that's what appeared to be happening late in the second and at the start of the third, as he saved a match point with a crushing forehand, and was sending down booming serves. At this point Federer looked to be hanging on, but as he always manages to do, he picked the right moment to push for the killing stroke and put a stopper on Tsonga's momentum, breaking him midway through the final set and eventually serving it out. Although this was not his best performance of the tournament, Federer did want champions do and seized the moment, this time without faltering as he has done at other junctures this year.

Portents aside, what Federer has done this year is remarkable, even if he has been estranged from a Grand Slam since the Australian Open in 2010. He made four major semi finals and won the World Tour Finals when he could have easily been deflated to some crushing losses, one of them to his stubborn opponent, Tsonga, and showed he still has the game to compete with his younger contemporaries. As for Tsonga, he still inhabits the position of being on the cusp of accomplishing something astonishing, a Grand Slam perhaps, but chances are he would have to go through Djokovic, Nadal and Federer to do it, possibly an unfair ask.

ATP World Tour Finals 2011 Preview

The clash between the top 8 players in the world commences this Sunday in what must be one of the most anticipated year end championships in a long while. What has been dubbed the 5th Grand Slam promises some scintillating clashes and the emerging consensus among tennis commentators is that although the big 4 are the obvious front runners, there is a good potential for some high profile upsets. Most prominently, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have been drawn in the same group and will be playing the most anticipated group match in the World Tour Finals this year, while world no.1 Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will face off in the other group.

The front runner is surely Federer, on a hot streak with two straight titles in Basel and at the Paris Masters - one of the few Masters tournaments to evade the maestro - and playing commanding attacking tennis. It would be a huge shock to see Federer bow out before the semi finals, who seems to thrive during the indoor season, and there will be no obstacle of surface transition as there could be for Rafael Nadal. The 02 is a court that plays very similar to the Paris Masters (slow, low bounce) and that only helps Federer's cause for making an historic win of 6 year end championships, and putting the fear of his name back into the cohorts who have outdone him this year.

Nadal on the other hand is an unknown quantity; he lost early in Shanghai, skipped Paris and as traditionally regarded is thought to be on his weakest surface, and at his weakest time of the year. But Nadal is smart, and the decision to skip Paris was predicated on the upcoming Davis Cup final with Argentina not long after the World Tour Finals. One gets the sense that out of the World Tour Finals and the Davis Cup, Nadal would rather sacrifice a win at the 02 for Davis Cup glory, and that he will be trying to conserve himself for a potentially arduous battle against the Argentinians, who are no slouch when it comes to clay, and are packing the heat of Juan Martin Del Potro and David Nalbandian. If that is the case we might see a looser Nadal than usual who is willing to flatten his shots out and kill matches earlier, and he may be even more dangerous than he usually is in that sense. Lest we forget, he made it to the final last year and played Federer pretty close, and despite the objectors Rafa has shown he has the ability and sheer determination to fight on surfaces that are not quite so propitious to his topspin founded game.

Djokovic, similar to Nadal, is erring on the side of fragility at the moment, and the big question still hanging in the air is over the severity of his shoulder injury which has forced him to retire on several occasions in the past few months (including a premature withdrawal against Jo Wilfried Tsonga in Paris earlier this month). He has however said that the shoulder was at 100% during serve practice, so we'll have to take his word for it, whether he appears to be downplaying it or not.With Novak's year, we can never count him out.

Murray is on a hot streak despite losing to Berdych in Paris last week, and has only lost one matche since bowing out of the US Open to Rafael Nadal, whom he defeated to take the Tokyo title, including a 6-0 final set in which he played superb attacking tennis. Murray seems to thrive in the pressure of playing in front of his home crowd, and will be energised somewhat by his new no.3 ranking accrued during the Asian hardcourt swing. It could well be his his first WTF final, following which the British media will go into its usual hyperbolic frenzy.

Finally, the competition cannot be underestimated and should not be considered as 'the rest'. David Ferrer is a nightmare to play against on his best days and no one should be surprised if he takes some high ranking scalps. Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych are dangerous, powerful hitters who are particularly proficient on indoor hard court, Tsonga having made the final of Paris last week, and Berdych being the winner recently of Beijing. Perhaps the weak link is Mardy Fish, but again, he has a game conducive to hard courts with his big serve and willingness to rush the net.

This is a highly open draw in terms of competitiveness, and don't be surprised if we see more than one surprise semi-finalist. Every man feels he has a chance against the next, and that should provide for some brilliant tennis.